CBO’s latest 2026 projection expects deaths to begin exceeding births in 2030. From that point onward, all net U.S. population growth is projected to come from immigration. Without immigration, the U.S. would begin shrinking.

The Demographic Outlook: 2026 to 2056

At a Glance The size of the U.S. population and its composition by age and sex have significant implications for the economy and the federal budget. For example, the number of people at the prime work...

cbo.gov